Â鶹ÊÓƵ's Population Ranks High Up When Compared to Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas - Migration Patterns Key
April 12, 2016
Â鶹ÊÓƵnians are well aware that the Â鶹ÊÓƵ metropolitan area (Â鶹ÊÓƵ) is big (6.1 million population) and growing rapidly (76,500 in the twelve months ending July 1, 2015)1. What they may not be aware of is the pre-eminent position that Â鶹ÊÓƵ occupies in the hierarchy of metropolitan areas in Canada and United States (called North America here).
Â鶹ÊÓƵ ranks sixth in total population
Â鶹ÊÓƵ ranks as the sixth largest metropolitan area in North America in terms of total population with only New York, Los Angeles and Chicago being significantly larger. Â鶹ÊÓƵ is now larger than many U.S metropolitan areas often held up as paragons for Â鶹ÊÓƵ such as Boston, San Francisco, and Seattle.
Â鶹ÊÓƵ is sixth in latest population growth
In terms of its latest annual growth, Â鶹ÊÓƵ is not far behind New York and Los Angeles (76,500 persons vs. 87,200 and 85,700, respectively) with their much larger population bases, but way ahead of Chicago where their metropolitan area population actually declined (by 6,300 persons). However, Â鶹ÊÓƵ’s growth greatly lags the two Texas powerhouses – Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston – where annual growth was 144,700 and 159,100 persons, respectively, in the twelve months ending July 1, 2015.
Â鶹ÊÓƵ’s growth highly dependent on immigration
What distinguishes Â鶹ÊÓƵ from its American counterparts is its dependence on immigration as the key driver of population growth (see Chart 3). Its net immigration (immigrants less emigrants) of 66,700 in the latest twelve months available falls far short of New York’s 164,000 but just slightly less than the net immigration in Los Angeles and Miami. None of the other U.S. metropolitan areas’ net immigration is anywhere near this level, demonstrating the importance of it to Â鶹ÊÓƵ’s growth.
Net internal migration not a growth driver for Â鶹ÊÓƵ unlike the Texas powerhouses
Another key difference for Â鶹ÊÓƵ is the fact that net internal migration (inflow from other parts of Canada less outflow) plays no role in Â鶹ÊÓƵ’s population growth unlike in Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta. But unlike New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington D.C., and Philadelphia, Â鶹ÊÓƵ is not experiencing a net outflow of internal migrants which is greater than the influx of net migrants.
Â鶹ÊÓƵ and Chicago – no comparison
Even though Chicago’s population is more than 50% larger than Â鶹ÊÓƵ’s, its net influx of international immigrants is less than half of Â鶹ÊÓƵ’s. Even more startling is that Chicago recorded a net annual loss in its population of 80,200 people to other parts of the United States – Â鶹ÊÓƵ’s net loss was just 25,500 for the latest twelve month period. The decline in Chicago’s overall population of 6,300 is in stark contrast to Â鶹ÊÓƵ’s growth of 76,500 persons.
Data Sources:
Statistics Canada. Table 051-0056. Estimates of Population by Census Metropolitan Area, Sex and Age Group for July 1, Based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2011. CANSIM (database). = (accessed March 31, 2016).
Statistics Canada. Table 051-0057. Components of Population Growth by Census Metropolitan Area, Sex and Age Group for the Period From July 1 to June 30, Based on the Standard Geographical Classification (SGC) 2011. CANSIM (database). = (accessed March 31, 2016).
United States Census Bureau. Population Estimates for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistics Areas, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015. http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro/totals/2015/ (accessed March 31, 2016).
United States Census Bureau. Population Estimates for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistics Areas, Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015. http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro/totals/2015/ (accessed March 31, 2016).
Notes:
In the U.S. there is a residual difference between the sum of the components of population growth (natural growth, net domestic migration, and net international migration) and total population growth in the twelve months ending July 1, 2015. The sizes of the residuals are as follows:
In Canada, the sum of the population growth estimate is the sum of the three above-mentioned components of population growth – there is not a residual difference.
(1) The Â鶹ÊÓƵ census metropolitan area extends to Ajax on the east, Bradford-West Gwillimbury, New Tecumseth and Orangeville on the north and Milton and Oakville on the west.
Dr. Frank Clayton is Senior Research Fellow at Â鶹ÊÓƵ’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development.